Note that films I have not yet seen are colored gray. There are some cases where I choose a nominee that I haven't yet seen. I'm guessing at those, based on trailers, what I've heard or read (I avoid reviews, so it would've been a basic summary listing/blurb if anything), or just the sound of the title. =)
In the documentary shorts category, I am utterly clueless and have no preference for any one over the others. I guessed "Killing" for the Academy because I knew about its subject, an investigation into the manifesto / terrorist ideology that drove a man to become a suicide bomber, which seems about as cliched Hollywood liberal as you can possibly get, no? =)
You'll find some quick-ish *SPOILERY* comments following the picks table. I'll leave a gap between the end of the table and the start of the comments so you can avoid being contaminated with any plot details of movies you haven't yet seen. =)
| MY PICK | OSCAR'S PICK | NOMINEE |
Best Picture | ||
|---|---|---|
| BLACK SWAN | ||
| THE FIGHTER | ||
| INCEPTION | ||
| THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT | ||
| X | THE KING'S SPEECH | |
| 127 HOURS | ||
| THE SOCIAL NETWORK | ||
| TOY STORY 3 | ||
| TRUE GRIT | ||
| X | WINTER'S BONE | |
Actor in a Leading Role | ||
| Javier Bardem (BIUTIFUL) | ||
| Jeff Bridges (TRUE GRIT) | ||
| Jesse Eisenberg (THE SOCIAL NETWORK) | ||
| X | Colin Firth (THE KING'S SPEECH) | |
| X | James Franco (127 HOURS) | |
Actress in a Leading Role | ||
| Annette Bening (THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT) | ||
| Nicole Kidman (RABBIT HOLE) | ||
| X | Jennifer Lawrence (WINTER'S BONE) | |
| X | Natalie Portman (BLACK SWAN) | |
| Michelle Williams (BLUE VALENTINE) | ||
Actor in a Supporting Role | ||
| Christian Bale (THE FIGHTER) | ||
| X | John Hawkes (WINTER'S BONE) | |
| Jeremy Renner (THE TOWN) | ||
| Mark Ruffalo (THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT) | ||
| X | Geoffrey Rush (THE KING'S SPEECH) | |
Actress in a Supporting Role | ||
| Amy Adams (THE FIGHTER) | ||
| Helena Bonham Carter (THE KING'S SPEECH) | ||
| Melissa Leo (THE FIGHTER) | ||
| X | X | Hailee Steinfeld (TRUE GRIT) |
| Jackie Weaver (ANIMAL KINGDOM) | ||
Directing | ||
| Darren Aronofsky (BLACK SWAN) | ||
| David O. Russell (THE FIGHTER) | ||
| X | Tom Hooper (THE KING'S SPEECH) | |
| X | David Fincher (THE SOCIAL NETWORK) | |
| Ethan Coen (TRUE GRIT) | ||
Writing (Adapted Screenplay) | ||
| 127 HOURS | ||
| X | THE SOCIAL NETWORK | |
| TOY STORY 3 | ||
| X | TRUE GRIT | |
| WINTER'S BONE | ||
Writing (Original Screenplay) | ||
| X | ANOTHER YEAR | |
| THE FIGHTER | ||
| INCEPTION | ||
| THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT | ||
| X | THE KING'S SPEECH | |
Animated Feature Film | ||
| HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON | ||
| THE ILLUSIONIST | ||
| X | X | TOY STORY 3 |
Art Direction | ||
| X | ALICE IN WONDERLAND | |
| HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PT 1 | ||
| INCEPTION | ||
| X | THE KING'S SPEECH | |
| TRUE GRIT | ||
Cinematography | ||
| BLACK SWAN | ||
| INCEPTION | ||
| THE KING'S SPEECH | ||
| THE SOCIAL NETWORK | ||
| X | X | TRUE GRIT |
Costume Design | ||
| X | X | ALICE IN WONDERLAND |
| I AM LOVE | ||
| THE KING'S SPEECH | ||
| THE TEMPEST | ||
| TRUE GRIT | ||
Documentary (Feature) | ||
| EXIT THROUGH THE GIFT SHOP | ||
| GASLAND | ||
| X | INSIDE JOB | |
| X | RESTREPO | |
| WASTE LAND | ||
Documentary (Short Subject) | ||
| X | "Killing In The Name" | |
| "Poster Girl" | ||
| "Strangers No More" | ||
| "Sun Come Up" | ||
| The Warriors Of Qiugang" | ||
Film Editing | ||
| BLACK SWAN | ||
| THE FIGHTER | ||
| THE KING'S SPEECH | ||
| X | 127 HOURS | |
| X | THE SOCIAL NETWORK | |
Foreign Language Film | ||
| BIUTIFUL | ||
| X | X | DOGTOOTH |
| IN A BETTER WORLD | ||
| INCENDIES | ||
| OUTSIDE THE LAW | ||
Makeup | ||
| X | BARNEY'S VERSION | |
| THE WAY BACK | ||
| X | THE WOLFMAN | |
Music (Original Score) | ||
| John Powell (HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON) | ||
| X | Hans Zimmer (INCEPTION) | |
| Alexandre Desplat (THE KING'S SPEECH) | ||
| A. R. Rahman (127 HOURS) | ||
| X | Trent Reznor / Atticus Ross (THE SOCIAL NETWORK) | |
Music (Original Song) | ||
| "Coming Home" (COUNTRY STRONG) | ||
| "I See The Light" (TANGLED) | ||
| "If I Rise" (127 HOURS) | ||
| X | X | "We Belong Together" (TOY STORY 3) |
Short Film (Animated) | ||
| X | X | "Day And Night" |
| "The Gruffalo" | ||
| "Let's Pollute" | ||
| "The Lost Thing" | ||
| "Madagascar, carnet de voyage" | ||
Short Film (Live Action) | ||
| X | "The Confession" | |
| "The Crush" | ||
| X | "God Of Love" | |
| "Na Wewe" | ||
| "Wish 143" | ||
Sound Editing | ||
| X | X | INCEPTION |
| TOY STORY 3 | ||
| TRON: LEGACY | ||
| TRUE GRIT | ||
| UNSTOPPABLE | ||
Sound Mixing | ||
| X | INCEPTION | |
| THE KING'S SPEECH | ||
| SALT | ||
| X | THE SOCIAL NETWORK | |
| TRUE GRIT | ||
Visual Effects | ||
| ALICE IN WONDERLAND | ||
| HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PT 1 | ||
| HERAFTER | ||
| X | X | INCEPTION |
| IRON MAN 2 | ||
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Comments with some *SPOILERS* follow...
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Best Picture: THE KING'S SPEECH. I have NO IDEA why KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT is nominated for anything. I think that there is nothing special about that film except for the caliber of the cast, which is wasted on the material. MAYbe the message is that the family of a same-sex marriage is just as screwed up as any other family on the block...? But if that's the case, why not introduce another WOMAN? Granted, Mark Ruffalo is irresistible, so he was properly cast, but why should the story want to have a man break up a shaky lesbian couple in the first place? I feel like what was sold as the central theme of the film--the challenge and drama of two siblings choosing to meet and begin relationships with their anonymous sperm-donating biological father--was criminally marginalized. Or did I just completely misread the film's trailer and promotion? Bleah.
I forget, was FIGHT CLUB nominated for best pic? If so, then BLACK SWAN is a fair choice. Otherwise, I feel like it's borderline best picture material. It's beautifully crafted, and features a great cast giving great performances, but it's like FIGHT CLUB meets SUSPIRIA, or a Ken Russel film, y'know?
I feel like it's really between SOCIAL NETWORK and THE KING'S SPEECH, and that goes for their rivalry across all categories. KING'S SPEECH has the advantage of its end-of-year release, as well as its British-ness. I think the Academy is a sucker for the accents, the collision of class, and that English brand of wit, y'know? I really wish WINTER'S BONE could take it, cuz it is such an amazing and unlikely convergence of talent and story, but I'm afraid it's not as accessible as the frontrunners I've identified. Boo. I'd be VERY happy to see TRUE GRIT take best pic. I loved that film from start to finish. My guess is that it feels/reads to too many people like "another western," when what it actually is is "another amazing Coen Brothers film that happens to be a western." Danny Boyle did something amazing with 127 HOURS, taking a story that everyone knows the ending to, and in his telling of it, manages to get you to suspend that knowledge. I saw it weeks after it had opened in a two-thirds full room at the Kendall, and when the moment of truth came, there were more than a few genuine cheers and "holy sh@t!" exclamations of surprise and relief. Still, another accessibility issue, which is really unfortunate, because while the situation and story is so singular, specialized, unique, Boyle and Franco make it remarkably, well, universal.
Best Actor: Colin Firth (THE KING'S SPEECH). I feel like it's between Franco and Firth for this, with Firth winning it.
Best Actress: Natalie Portman (BLACK SWAN) I think every nominee but Bening really delivered performances that make their films (not that Bening's performance was poor, just wasted on crap material). Jennifer Lawrence in WINTER'S BONE is my favorite, a young, powerful, cool, yet simmering revelation, but I have to give it to Natalie for out-acting everyone by rising to meet the challenge of such a physically and emotionally demanding role. Damn impressive.
Best Supporting Actor: Geoffrey Rush (THE KING'S SPEECH). I have a feeling that Bale probably delivered a kickass performance, but sad to say, I haven't been able to see THE FIGHTER yet. I want John Hawkes to win this, but I feel like a sweep by THE KING'S SPEECH will carry this category as well. Rush IS excellent in it, but how terrible is it of me to say that excellence is what's expected of him? Although... Okay, I hafta say that he's more excellent than his baseline excellent because of his chemistry with Colin Firth. It's almost not fair to name them each separately for different categories. There should be a "chemistry" or "synergy" option as well.
Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfield. I want to give it to Hailee Steinfeld, and I'm gonna say the Academy does, too. She is a genuine treat to watch in TRUE GRIT. Precocious, stalwart, righteous, clever, and vengeful. Also, 14 years old (her character, at least). She more than holds her own against and opposite Bridges, Damon, Pepper, and every other cast member and supposed adult / authority character in the film. I'm afraid that Helena Bonham Carter is done in by her King and his speech therapist. She is a lovely and sharp better half, but next to the pair of Firth and Rush, she just doesn't shine as much as she could, and has in other roles. I have no clue as to the on screen goodness of Jacki Weaver in ANIMAL KINGDOM, but I'm telling myself that that in itself is a sign of how little of a fight she can give her fellow nominees. I'm familiar w Amy Adams and Melissa Leo, and if they were in different films, I'd probably pick Melissa Leo to win, performance unseen (she is amazing in FROZEN RIVER). *BUT* since they're both in THE FIGHTER, I'm gonna actually apply a bit of strategery to my Oscar prediction and say that fans of the film will split between the two, each putting a dent in the others' support, leaving Hailee to be triumphantly buoyed by a winning quorum of faithful, right-minded Academy members. She really does rock that film. Thank goodness she's not up against Portman and Lawrence. While watching her in GRIT, I thought of each of those other actresses several times.
Enough rambling for now. This bloggorhea has been fueled by post-late-shift-volleyball nonsomnia. Time now, hopefully, to sleep.
* February 27, 2011. Click here for rambling on the rest of the categories.
Keep on keepin on~
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