Oscar picks - the list...

Okay, it's gonna take way too long for me to keep on w my bits of exposition as I consider the nominations category by category, so I'm just gonna go down the list as it's presented at the Academy's website (alphabetically, apparently), and mark my Oscar picks (who/what I believe will win the Oscar) with an [O], and cabinboy's (my) personal favorite picks (what I'd vote for based on my own tastes and experiences of the films) with a [C], if different from the Oscar pick.

I'll also indicate in parentheses when I'm just shootin in the dark, or perhaps the dimly lit, and let you know what movies in the category I've seen or not.

Sad to say, I totally missed HOWL'S MOVING CASTLE. How did STEAMBOY not get a nomination for animated feature? That film is steampunkily delicious!

For most of the technical awards, I just on gut went with KING KONG. An amazing immersive technical rollercoaster ride. And man! His Manhattan of the 30s is beautiful!

Art direction I could think and overthink and over-overthink given the nominees, but the simple completeness of the world achieved in GOOD NIGHT comes back to me very strongly, making it my personal fave. Alas, my Academy-guessing brain feels like something more overtly decorative/decorated and designed is what will win, and although I didn't experience it firsthand, I feel that the distance in both time and geography from the modern West will make GEISHA's visual impact, whether authentic or not, the actual Oscar pick over PRIDE and KONG. And on top of that, in a sort of give-and-take strategic call, KING KONG doesn't get this because it should get all the technical categories, even though it's excellent art direction applied to the effects tools that makes them so successful.

If you're curious about the nominated shorts, check out the Coolidge for their Oscar shorts programs running this week.
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Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

[O] __ Philip Seymour Hoffman - CAPOTE
[_ ] __ Terrence Howard - HUSTLE & FLOW
[_ ] __ Heath Ledger - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
[_ ] __ Joaquin Phoenix - WALK THE LINE
[C] __ David Strathairn - GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.

Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

[_ ] __ George Clooney - SYRIANA
[C] __ Matt Dillon - CRASH
[O] __ Paul Giamatti - CINDERELLA MAN
[_ ] __ Jake Gyllenhaal - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
[C] __ William Hurt - A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE

Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role (guess - only seen PRIDE and WALK THE LINE)

[_ ] __ Judi Dench - MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS
[O] __ Felicity Huffman - TRANSAMERICA
[_ ] __ Keira Knightley - PRIDE & PREJUDICE
[_ ] __ Charlize Theron - NORTH COUNTRY
[_ ] __ Reese Witherspoon - WALK THE LINE

Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role (mostly guess - haven't seen JUNEBUG or NORTH COUNTRY)

[_ ] __ Amy Adams - JUNEBUG
[_ ] __ Catherine Keener - CAPOTE
[O] __ Frances McDormand - NORTH COUNTRY
[_ ] __ Rachel Weisz - THE CONSTANT GARDENER
[C] __ Michelle Williams - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year (haven't seen HOWL'S)

[_ ] __ HOWL'S MOVING CASTLE
[_ ] __ TIM BURTON'S CORPSE BRIDE
[O] __ WALLACE & GROMIT IN THE CURSE OF THE WERE-RABBIT

Achievement in Art Direction (haven't seen GEISHA)

[C] __ GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
[_ ] __ HARRY POTTER AND THE GOBLET OF FIRE
[_ ] __ KING KONG
[O] __ MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
[_ ] __ PRIDE & PREJUDICE

Achievement in Cinematography (haven't seen NEW WORLD)

[_ ] __ BATMAN BEGINS
[O] __ BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
[_ ] __ GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
[_ ] __ MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
[_ ] __ THE NEW WORLD

Achievement in Costume Design (sorta guess - haven't seen GEISHA or HENDERSON)

[_ ] __ CHARLIE AND THE CHOCOLATE FACTORY
[O] __ MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
[_ ] __ MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS
[_ ] __ PRIDE & PREJUDICE
[_ ] __ WALK THE LINE

Achievement in Directing

[O] __ BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
[_ ] __ CAPOTE
[_ ] __ CRASH
[C] __ GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
[_ ] __ MUNICH

Best Documentary Feature (mostly guess - only seen NIGHTMARE)

[C] __ DARWIN'S NIGHTMARE
[O] __ ENRON: THE SMARTEST GUYS IN THE ROOM
[_ ] __ MARCH OF THE PENGUINS
[_ ] __ MURDERBALL
[_ ] __ STREET FIGHT

Best Documentary Short Subject (guess - seen none of these)

[_ ] __ THE DEATH OF KEVIN CARTER: CASUALTY OF THE BANG BANG CLUB
[O] __ GOD SLEEPS IN RWANDA
[_ ] __ THE MUSHROOM CLUB
[_ ] __ A NOTE OF TRIUMPH: THE GOLDEN AGE OF NORMAN CORWIN

Achievement in Film Editing (haven't seen CINDERELLA)

[_ ] __ CINDERELLA MAN
[_ ] __ THE CONSTANT GARDENER
[O] __ CRASH
[_ ] __ MUNICH
[_ ] __ WALK THE LINE

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year (guess - seen none of these)

[_ ] __ Don't Tell
[_ ] __ Joyeux Noël
[O] __ Paradise Now
[_ ] __ Sophie Scholl - The Final Days
[_ ] __ Tsotsi

Achievement in Makeup (haven't seen CINDERELLA)

[O] __ THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE LION, THE WITCH AND THE WARDROBE
[_ ] __ CINDERELLA MAN
[_ ] __ STAR WARS: EPISODE III REVENGE OF THE SITH

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score) (haven't seen GEISHA)

[O] __ BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
[_ ] __ THE CONSTANT GARDENER
[_ ] __ MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
[_ ] __ MUNICH
[_ ] __ PRIDE & PREJUDICE

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song) (guess - only seen CRASH)

[O] __ "In the Deep" from CRASH
[_ ] __ "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" from HUSTLE & FLOW
[_ ] __ "Travelin' Thru" from TRANSAMERICA

Best Motion Picture of the Year

[O] __ BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
[_ ] __ CAPOTE
[_ ] __ CRASH
[C] __ GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
[_ ] __ MUNICH

Best Animated Short Film (guess - seen none of these)

[_ ] __ BADGERED
[_ ] __ THE MOON AND THE SON: AN IMAGINED CONVERSATION
[_ ] __ THE MYSTERIOUS GEOGRAPHIC EXPLORATIONS OF JASPER MORELLO
[O] __ 9
[_ ] __ ONE MAN BAND

Best Live Action Short Film (guess - seen none of these)

[_ ] __ AUSREISSER (THE RUNAWAY)
[_ ] __ CASHBACK
[_ ] __ THE LAST FARM
[_ ] __ OUR TIME IS UP
[O] __ SIX SHOOTER

Achievement in Sound Editing (haven't seen GEISHA)

[O] __ KING KONG
[_ ] __ MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
[_ ] __ WAR OF THE WORLDS

Achievement in Sound Mixing (haven't seen GEISHA)

[_ ] __ THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE LION, THE WITCH AND THE WARDROBE
[O] __ KING KONG
[_ ] __ MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
[_ ] __ WALK THE LINE
[_ ] __ WAR OF THE WORLDS

Achievement in Visual Effects

[_ ] __ THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE LION, THE WITCH AND THE WARDROBE
[O] __ KING KONG
[_ ] __ WAR OF THE WORLDS

Adapted Screenplay

[O] __ BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
[_ ] __ CAPOTE
[_ ] __ THE CONSTANT GARDENER
[C] __ A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE
[_ ] __ MUNICH

Original Screenplay (haven't seen MATCH POINT)

[O] __ CRASH
[_ ] __ GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
[_ ] __ MATCH POINT
[_ ] __ THE SQUID AND THE WHALE
[_ ] __ SYRIANA
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I'm a bit curious about how, or how much of, the Academy might vote with politics in mind. Does it MEAN anything if (when) BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN wins it all? I'm sure it'll come up in SOMEone's no-spin zone in some bullet point list knocking the wrong-minded, anti-family, un-American influence of Hollywood, or pop "culture," or "art." Another bogus overstated brushstroke in the attempt to paint the American way of life as being in peril from Godless gays and liberal Hollywood.

And what does it mean to reward GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK? Probably not a lot, right? I mean, it's about television news journalists reporting with a conscience, and on the flip side, a cautionary tale of how the medium and industry of television needs to be aware of "Uncle Ben's Razor" - with great power comes great responsibility. It's too bad it's a story that's so hard to understand in this day and age, eh? I mean what does any of that have to do with life in 21st century America...?

And is it significant if movies like these are overlooked? I guess the nominations alone are more than enough recognition. They have and will pump up the exposure for each and every one of the nominated films. Of course, I don't see BROKEBACK not winning the picture and director awards. The performances are solid, but I think in each category there are competitors who delivered more, or are in a situation where the Academy may make a kind of "error correction" a higher priority than head-to-head comparison/competition, a la the notion that Giamatti was overlooked in SIDEWAYS.

Eh, in the end... Whatev. I like what I like. =)

I've never been one to pre-empt my night for the Oscars (except where good company figured prominently =), or any awards show, but I do have to admit I'm keen on seeing what John Stewart will bring to the evening. Also this year, I'm gonna be hitting the Brattle's Oscar party/screening. Should be JUST the right crowd to appreciate a Stewart-emceed Academy Awards show!

Please, no live music from Antonio Banderas this year...

I saw this question in an Oscars poll/survey earlier this week - Who do you think will be the "Sean Penn" of this year's Oscars?

I think it'll be Sean Penn. =)

Once BROKEBACK wins its Oscars, do you think the prez will watch it? Or at least, admit to it?

Keep on keepin on~